Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Tetlock Philip E.
Новое издание
Автор: Tetlock Philip E. Название: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? ISBN: 0691175977 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780691175973 Издательство: Wiley Цена: 3485.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщикаПоставка под заказ. Описание:
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion.
etlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat.
Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Автор: Tetlock, Philip & Gardner, Dan Название: Superforecasting ISBN: 1847947158 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781847947154 Издательство: Random House - Penguin Рейтинг: Цена: 1451.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Tetlock`s latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight.
Автор: Tetlock, Philip, Gardner, Dan Название: Superforecasters ISBN: 184794714X ISBN-13(EAN): 9781847947147 Издательство: Random House - Penguin Рейтинг: Цена: 1979.00 р. Наличие на складе: Поставка под заказ.
Описание: What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? This book offers an insight into what we can learn from this elite group. It also shows the methods used by the superforecasters which enable them to out perform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data.
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