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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers, Kay John, King Mervyn


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Автор: Kay John, King Mervyn   (Джон Кей)
Название:  Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Перевод названия: Джон Кей: Радикальная неопределенность. Принятие решений за гранью
ISBN: 9781324004776
Издательство: Wiley
Классификация:

ISBN-10: 1324004770
Обложка/Формат: Hardcover
Страницы: 384
Вес: 0.67 кг.
Дата издания: 17.03.2020
Язык: English
Размер: 231 x 150 x 41
Ссылка на Издательство: Link
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Поставляется из: Англии
Описание:

Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industrys actuarial tables and the gamblers roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no-one--not least Steve Jobs--knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package--what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?--demonstrate only that their advice is worthless.

The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.




Decision Making for Minimally Invasive Spine Surgery

Автор: Faheem A. Sandhu
Название: Decision Making for Minimally Invasive Spine Surgery
ISBN: 1604062665 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781604062663
Издательство: Thieme Verlagsgruppe
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Цена: 12386.00 р.
Наличие на складе: Нет в наличии.

Описание: Intends to guide surgeons in deciding which patients would benefit most from MIS as opposed to traditional open spine surgery. This title includes various MIS spine procedures.

Decision Making in Spinal Care

Автор: David Greg Anderson
Название: Decision Making in Spinal Care
ISBN: 160406417X ISBN-13(EAN): 9781604064179
Издательство: Thieme Verlagsgruppe
Цена: 13212.00 р.
Наличие на складе: Нет в наличии.

Описание:

A comprehensive and concise reference for determining treatment options of the spine

Updated and expanded to reflect current management strategies and new technologies, Decision Making in Spinal Care, Second Edition provides readers with focused guidance to every major topic in spine, with an emphasis on clinical decision making. Covering the most common spine problems, this new edition covers the spectrum of diagnoses seen in a typical spinal practice, from trauma injuries to metabolic and degenerative diseases to spinal deformities.

Highlights of the Second Edition:

  • Focuses on "must-know" information that significantly impacts clinical decisions
  • Includes new spinal technologies in the Contemporary Topics section to keep readers current
  • Contains more algorithms, figures, and diagrams to aid understanding and facilitate rapid management guidance
  • Written by world-renowned spinal care experts

This handy portable reference will enable residents, fellows, spine surgeons, and associated clinicians in orthopedic surgery and neurosurgery to quickly access the information they need to make the right decisions in treating typical spinal conditions.

Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making

Автор: Van-Nam Huynh; Masahiro Inuiguchi; Thierry Demoeux
Название: Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making
ISBN: 3319251341 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783319251349
Издательство: Springer
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Цена: 10062.00 р.
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.

Описание: Offers a general participation assessment across five levels of participation and cooperation and the specific behaviours that make up these five levels. The manual details instructions on how to administer the Social Profile, describes how the assessment was developed, and summarized research to support its use. Also included are 14 case studies that illustrate how the Social Profile can be used.

What Every Engineer Should Know About Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Автор: Wang, John X.
Название: What Every Engineer Should Know About Decision Making Under Uncertainty
ISBN: 0367447002 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780367447007
Издательство: Taylor&Francis
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Цена: 9645.00 р.
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Описание: This book introduces general techniques for thinking systematically and quantitatively about uncertainty in engineering decision problems. It shows how conditional expectations and conditional cumulative distributions can be estimated in a simulation model.

Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making

Автор: Huynh
Название: Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making
ISBN: 3319754289 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783319754284
Издательство: Springer
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Цена: 6986.00 р.
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Описание: This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making, IUKM 2018, held in Hanoi, Vietnam, in March 2018.The 39 revised full papers presented in this book were carefully reviewed and selected from 76 initial submissions.

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making

Автор: V.T. Covello; Lester B. Lave; Alan Moghissi; V.R.R
Название: Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making
ISBN: 146845319X ISBN-13(EAN): 9781468453195
Издательство: Springer
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Цена: 16979.00 р.
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.

Описание: Proceedings of the Society for Risk Analysis International Workshop held in Knoxville, Tennessee, September 30-October 3, 1984

Uncertainty in Entrepreneurial Decision Making

Автор: Petrakis
Название: Uncertainty in Entrepreneurial Decision Making
ISBN: 1137460784 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781137460783
Издательство: Springer
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Цена: 15372.00 р.
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.

Описание: Uncertainty in Entrepreneurial Decision Making fills an existing gap in understanding three key concepts of business management: entrepreneurship, uncertainty, and strategy.

Uncertainty and Environmental Decision Making

Автор: Jerzy A. Filar; Alain Haurie
Название: Uncertainty and Environmental Decision Making
ISBN: 1441911286 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781441911285
Издательство: Springer
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Цена: 26122.00 р.
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.

Описание: This important new work presents the state-of-the-art in applying operations research and management science (OR/MS) techniques to a broad range of environmental decision making (EDM) challenges. The subject matter is of critical importance.

Objectives and Multi-Objective Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Автор: J. Wilhelm
Название: Objectives and Multi-Objective Decision Making Under Uncertainty
ISBN: 3540074120 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783540074120
Издательство: Springer
Рейтинг:
Цена: 15372.00 р.
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets

Автор: Antonio J. Conejo; Miguel Carri?n; Juan M. Morales
Название: Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets
ISBN: 1461426782 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781461426783
Издательство: Springer
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Цена: 41787.00 р.
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.

Описание: This book provides models and procedures to be used by electricity market agents to make informed decisions under uncertainty. These procedures rely on well established stochastic programming models, which make them efficient and robust.

Pediatric Decision-Making Strategies,Albert J. Pomeranz. Saunders, 2015

Автор: Pomeranz Albert J.
Название: Pediatric Decision-Making Strategies,Albert J. Pomeranz. Saunders, 2015
ISBN: 0323298540 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780323298544
Издательство: Elsevier Science
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Цена: 5388.00 р.
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.

Описание: Preceded by Pediatric decision-making strategies to accompany Nelson Textbook of Pediatrics, 16th ed. / Albert J. Pomeranz ... [et al.]. c2002.

Managing in Uncertainty

Автор: Mowles
Название: Managing in Uncertainty
ISBN: 1138843733 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781138843738
Издательство: Taylor&Francis
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Цена: 22202.00 р.
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.

Описание: This book argues that paradox, ambiguity and uncertainty in organizational life are the norm rather than the exception for leaders and managers. Drawing on insights from the complexity sciences, process sociology and pragmatic philosophy, Chris Mowles directly engages with some principal contradictions of organizational life concerning innovation, culture change, conflict and leadership.


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