Автор: Nassim Nicholas Taleb Название: The Black Swan ISBN: 0141034599 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780141034591 Издательство: Random House - Penguin Рейтинг: Цена: 1373.00 р. 1716.00-20% Наличие на складе: Есть (2 шт.) Описание: What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great`s lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This title deals with this questions.
Автор: Agnelli Marella, Chia Marella Caraciolo Название: Marella Agnelli: The Last Swan ISBN: 0847843211 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780847843213 Издательство: Rizzoli Рейтинг: Цена: от 7567.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть
Описание: The exclusive world of one of the twentieth century`s most glamorous and alluring women, as seen through her private homes and gardens.
Автор: , Flint Katy Название: The Story Orchestra: Swan Lake ISBN: 0711241503 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780711241503 Издательство: Quarto Рейтинг: Цена: 2467.00 р. Наличие на складе: Ожидается поступление.
Описание: A spellbinding retelling of a classic ballet story, with 10 sound clips.
Автор: Swan, Michael Название: Practical english usage, 4th edition ISBN: 0194202429 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780194202428 Издательство: Oxford University Press Рейтинг: Цена: от 6404.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть
Описание: Fully revised and updated, and now available online and in print.
Автор: Fisher, Catherine Название: Midnight swan ISBN: 1913102378 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781913102371 Издательство: Неизвестно Рейтинг: Цена: 1107.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: With an invisible girl, a parliament of owls and a pen that writes by itself, the journey to the garden of the Midnight Swan might be Seren`s most dangerous adventure yet.
Автор: David Mitchell Название: Black Swan Green ISBN: 0340822805 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780340822807 Издательство: Hodder Рейтинг: Цена: 1424.00 р. 1582.00-10% Наличие на складе: Есть (1 шт.) Описание: Shortlisted for the Costa Novel Award
Автор: Swan Michael Название: Practical English Usage, 4th edition: Paperback ISBN: 0194202437 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780194202435 Издательство: Oxford Academ Рейтинг: Цена: от 4333.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть
Описание: Fully revised and updated, and now available online and in print.
Автор: Mayhew James Название: Ella Bella Ballerina and Swan Lake ISBN: 140830077X ISBN-13(EAN): 9781408300770 Издательство: Little Brown Рейтинг: Цена: 1213.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Another sumptuous story featuring the delightful Ella Bella Ballerina in the most famous ballet of all, Swan Lake!
Автор: Swan, Karen Название: Christmas lights ISBN: 1509838082 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781509838080 Издательство: Pan Macmillan Рейтинг: Цена: 1154.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Set on the scenic fjords of Norway, The Christmas Lights by internationally bestselling author Karen Swan is a moving Christmas tale of love and heartbreak.
Автор: Karen Swan Название: The Hidden Beach ISBN: 1529006228 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781529006223 Издательство: Pan Macmillan Рейтинг: Цена: 1154.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: From the internationally bestselling author Karen Swan comes an escapist, sweeping novel full of twists and turns, heartbreak and romance.
Автор: Michael Swan, Catherine Walter, Desmond O`Sullivan Название: New Cambridge English Course, The Level 4 Test Book ISBN: 0521376726 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780521376723 Издательство: Cambridge University Press Цена: 1190.00 р. Наличие на складе: Нет в наличии.
Описание: The New Cambridge English Course is a four-level course for learners of English. Level 4 takes learners from intermediate to upper-intermediate standard (approximately at the level of the Cambridge First Certificate). It can be used with learners who have studied previous levels of the course, or as an independent upper-intermediate course. The course features: * proven multi-syllabus approach * clearly focused and 'signposted' aims for each lesson * wide variety of presentation and practice material * allowance for different learning styles and teaching situations * balance between control and freedom in language practice * motivating range of up-to-date topics * frequent use authentic reading and listening material * highly attractive, clearly organised page design. Level 4 teaches all the language and skills necessary at upper-intermediate level. It is divided into five blocks, each containing eight lessons followed by a Summary, Revision, and Fluency Practice section and a Revision Test. Each block provides four 'general purpose' lessons, two 'Skills Focus' lessons, and two 'Focus on Systems' lessons, dealing with special problems of grammar, vocabulary and pronunciation.' The
Автор: Nassim Nicholas Taleb Название: The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable ISBN: 081297381X ISBN-13(EAN): 9780812973815 Издательство: Random House (USA) Рейтинг: Цена: 1839.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb "The most prophetic voice of all."--GQ Praise for The Black Swan " A book] that altered modern thinking."--The Times (London) "A masterpiece."--Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."--Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times "The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."--Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate " Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias and] narrative fallacy."--The Wall Street Journal "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into."--Financial Times "Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition."--The New York Times Book Review
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