Автор: Tetlock Philip E. Название: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? ISBN: 0691175977 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780691175973 Издательство: Wiley Рейтинг: Цена: 3485.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание:
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion.
etlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat.
Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Автор: Lister, Lisa Название: Code red ISBN: 1788174755 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781788174756 Издательство: Hay House Рейтинг: Цена: 2226.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Your period is a four-part code that, once cracked, will uncover a series of monthly superpowers. Easy to follow strategies will connect you to your innate feminine wisdom, including: yoga, sacred feminine movement, and ancient practices to support your menstrual health. Learn to live in alignment with nature, the Moon, and your menstrual cycle.
Автор: Chenoweth Erica Название: Civil Resistance: What Everyone Needs to Know(r) ISBN: 0190244402 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780190244408 Издательство: Oxford Academ Рейтинг: Цена: 2058.00 р. Наличие на складе: Нет в наличии.
Описание: Exploring both historical cases of civil resistance and more contemporary examples such as the Arab Awakenings and various ongoing movements in the United States, Civil Resistance: What Everyone Needs to Know (R) provides a comprehensive and engaging review of the current field of knowledge.
Описание: This is a new analysis of the 'daughters' in the Gospel of Mark . Betsworth analyzes the 'daughters' in the Gospel of Mark : the woman from the crowd - whom Jesus calls daughter, Jairus' daughter (5:21-43), Herodias' daughter (6:14-29), and the daughter of the Syro-Phoenician woman (7:24-30). To demonstrate how the Gospel's first century audience may have heard these stories, Betsworth begins by examining 'daughters' in their ancient Mediterranean context. Betsworth then considers representations of daughters in select texts from the Septuagint and Greco-Roman literature - from the seventh and sixth centuries B.C.E. to the second century C.E. Although these depictions seem to be in contrast to the social-historical construction of daughters, Betsworth shows that in many ways the literary portrayals of daughters function to uphold the values of Greco-Roman culture - especially those of virginity before and faithfulness in marriage. These two lines of enquiry undergird Betsworth's investigation. From it she is able to show that the 'daughters' in the Gospel uphold the values of the 'reign of God', as an integral part of the Gospel's inclusive social vision of God's reign. This title was formerly the Journal for the Study of the New Testament Supplement , a book series that explores the many aspects of New Testament study including historical perspectives, social-scientific and literary theory, and theological, cultural and contextual approaches.
Описание: In the rich tradition of oral storytelling, Chief Irving Powless Jr. of the Beaver Clan of the Onondaga Nation reminds us of an ancient treaty. It promises that the Haudenosaunee people and non-Indigenous North Americans will respect each other’s differences even when their cultures and behaviors differ greatly.Powless shares intimate stories of growing up close to the earth, of his work as Wampum Keeper for the Haudenosaunee people, of his heritage as a lacrosse player, and of the treaties his ancestors made with the newcomers. He also pokes fun at the often-peculiar behavior of his non-Onondaga neighbors, asking, ""Who are these people anyway?"" Sometimes disarmingly gentle, sometimes caustic, these vignettes refreshingly portray mainstream North American culture as seen through Haudenosaunee eyes. Powless illustrates for all of us the importance of respect, peace, and, most importantly, living by the unwritten laws that preserve the natural world for future generations.
Описание: Although pony-like in stature (measuring no more than thirty-eight inches at the shoulder), miniature horses nevertheless resemble small, well-proportioned horses with refined features. As pets or show horses, for driving, as well as therapy and guide animals, miniatures are ideal whether kept in limited space or on larger property. With stunning photographs by Bruce Curtis, The Book of Miniature Horses is as delightful an introduction to this fascinating breed as the horses themselves.
Описание: "Does It Pay?" ". . . . and the Page man asked the question that enters into every business transaction in these intensely practical days." - JKG Galbraith fans will delight in reading some of the earliest published articles by bestselling author John Kenneth Galbraith. This book is a collection of the majority of interviews John Kenneth Galbraith wrote while he was the cub reporter for the St. Thomas Times-Journal, 1925-1932. The interviews read like conversations from the past. Read only the articles of interest to you one at a time, or read cover to cover to get a feel for the times - the frustration of farmers with ever changing standards and regulations or the success and pride of the Topnotchers that shines through loud and clear. A surname index has been included so that readers may find their kin and hear the voices of their grandfathers or great uncles. These men speak plainly about conditions on southwestern Ontario farms during a time of great change. Change was not always embraced with enthusiasm in the rural community. Pasteurization and new health legislations had come into force, along with the Clean Seed Act, the gasoline engine, electricity and refrigeration, just to name a few. All of these followed the largest conflict in the world - the First World War. Along with all these changes came the crash of '29, prohibition, crop failures, the Great Depression and the prelude to World War II. How did they cope? Throughout these articles, note how some of the problems faced some eighty years ago are still faced by farmers today. So much changes; yet so much stays the same. Can we learn and improve on our past mistakes? Can we look at mistakes made then and try not to repeat them? Can we take past successes and re-invent them for today's farming community that still faces economic challenges? Can each of us take the advice offered by these Topnotchers and apply it to our own situations? Only time will tell. Jenny Phillips has added her original pen & ink sketches as well as dozens of advertisements of the era to the articles, James Galbraith's foreword and the numerous indexes to give a comprehensive record of the times. "My father delighted all his life in the incredible range of agricultural knowledge." "He used it in politics from time to time, though not always with great success." "He used it to guide his thinking and establish his authority on matters related to economic development, especially in India during his years as Ambassador to that vast, still agrarian democracy."- James K. Galbraith, Economist and author of The Predator State "John Kenneth Galbraith's writing reveal that issues farmers faced 80 years ago are issues farmers are still confronted with today." - Steve Peters MPP"I will always treasure that I had the opportunity to know the man from Elgin County who was the most influential economist of the 20th century"- Steve Peters MPP"Clearly John Kenneth Galbraith's Elgin roots never left him. His life story and accomplishments remind us that our rural way of life can inspire global achievements."- Brian Masschaele, Elgin County Cultural Services Director.
Автор: Richardson, Louise Название: The Senses ISBN: 1138921556 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781138921559 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 15312.00 р. Наличие на складе: Нет в наличии.
Автор: Kettler, David Название: Karl Mannheim and the Crisis of Liberalism ISBN: 1560001887 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781560001881 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 22202.00 р. Наличие на складе: Нет в наличии.
Автор: Womack, Kenneth; O`Toole, Kit Название: Fandom and The Beatles ISBN: 0190917857 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780190917852 Издательство: Oxford Academ Рейтинг: Цена: 16236.00 р. Наличие на складе: Нет в наличии.
Описание: Fandom and the Beatles: The Act You`ve Known for All These Years offers an insightful look into the band`s enduring appeal through fan responses, exploring how The Beatles have inspired such loyalty and multigenerational popularity.
Название: These ragged edges ISBN: 1469668394 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781469668390 Издательство: Mare Nostrum (Eurospan) Рейтинг: Цена: 3756.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: The U.S.-Mexico border has earned an enduring reputation as a site of violence. During the past twenty years in particular, the drug wars--fueled by the international movement of narcotics and vast sums of money--have burned an abiding image of the border as a place of endemic danger into the consciousness of both countries. By the media, popular culture, and politicians, mayhem and brutality are often portrayed as the unavoidable birthright of this transnational space. Through multiple perspectives from both sides of the border, the collected essays in These Ragged Edges directly challenge that idea, arguing that rapidly changing conditions along the U.S.-Mexico border through the nineteenth, twentieth, and twenty-first centuries have powerfully shaped the ebb and flow of conflict within the region. By diving deeply into diverse types of violence, contributors dissect the roots and consequences of border violence across numerous eras, offering a transnational analysis of how and why violence has affected the lives of so many inhabitants on both sides of the border.Contributors include Alberto Barrera-Enderle, Alice Baumgartner, Timothy Bowman, Lance R. Blyth, Elaine Carey, William D. Carrigan, Jose Carlos Cisneros Guzman, Alejandra Diaz de Leon, Miguel Angel Gonzalez-Quiroga, Santiago Ivan Guerra, Gerardo Gurza-Lavalle, Sonia Hernandez, Alan Knight, Jose Gabriel Martinez Serna, Brandon Morgan, and Joaquin Rivaya-Martinez, Andrew J. Torget, and Clive Webb.
Автор: Solly Название: ‘These Eighty Years` ISBN: 1108036236 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781108036238 Издательство: Cambridge Academ Рейтинг: Цена: 5701.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Henry Solly (1813-1903) was a British Unitarian minister and social reformer. He is remembered today for his involvement in Working Men`s Clubs and the Garden City movement. Volume 1 of Solly`s autobiography, first published in 1893, focuses on his childhood and his early intellectual and political development.
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