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Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis: Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method, Martha Whitesmith


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Автор: Martha Whitesmith
Название:  Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis: Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method
ISBN: 9781474466356
Издательство: Bloomsbury Academic
Классификация:


ISBN-10: 1474466354
Обложка/Формат: Paperback
Страницы: 304
Вес: 0.47 кг.
Дата издания: 30.05.2022
Серия: Intelligence, surveillance and secret warfare
Язык: English
Размер: 156 x 234 x 24
Читательская аудитория: Professional and scholarly
Ключевые слова: Cognition & cognitive psychology,Espionage & secret services
Подзаголовок: Improving analytical efforts for national intelligence
Рейтинг:
Поставляется из: Англии
Описание: This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).


Quantitative Intelligence Analysis: Applied Analytic Models, Simulations and Games

Автор: Waltz Edward
Название: Quantitative Intelligence Analysis: Applied Analytic Models, Simulations and Games
ISBN: 1442235861 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781442235861
Издательство: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
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Цена: 19430.00 р.
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Описание: The text explains the model-based method of intelligence analysis that represents the analyst`s mental models of a subject as well as the analyst`s reasoning process. It includes dynamic simulations and interactive analytic games, case studies that illustrate a wide range of intelligence problems, and a recommended curriculum for technical analysts.

Cases in Intelligence Analysis

Автор: Randolph H Pherson Sarah Miller Beebe &
Название: Cases in Intelligence Analysis
ISBN: 1483340163 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781483340166
Издательство: Sage Publications
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Цена: 13306.00 р.
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Описание: Now with 20 cases on major events with relevance for intelligence analysis, this text gives readers a hands-on opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques to tackle real-life problems.

National Intelligence and Science: Beyond the Great Divide in Analysis and Policy

Автор: Agrell Wilhelm, Treverton Gregory F.
Название: National Intelligence and Science: Beyond the Great Divide in Analysis and Policy
ISBN: 0199360863 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780199360864
Издательство: Oxford Academ
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Цена: 5226.00 р.
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Описание: Intelligence is currently facing increasingly challenging cross-pressures from both a need for accurate and timely assessments of potential or imminent security threats and the unpredictability of many of these emerging threats. We are living in a social environment of growing security and
intelligence challenges, yet the traditional, narrow intelligence process is becoming increasingly insufficient for coping with diffuse, complex, and rapidly-transforming threats. The essence of intelligence is no longer the collection, analysis, and dissemination of secret information, but has
become instead the management of uncertainty in areas critical for overriding security goals--not only for nations, but also for the international community as a whole. For its part, scientific research on major societal risks like climate change is facing a similar cross-pressure from demand on the
one hand and incomplete data and developing theoretical concepts on the other. For both of these knowledge-producing domains, the common denominator is the paramount challenges of framing and communicating uncertainty and of managing the pitfalls of politicization.

National Intelligence and Science is one of the first attempts to analyze these converging domains and the implications of their convergence, in terms of both more scientific approaches to intelligence problems and intelligence approaches to scientific problems. Science and intelligence constitute,
as the book spells out, two remarkably similar and interlinked domains of knowledge production, yet ones that remain traditionally separated by a deep political, cultural, and epistemological divide.

Looking ahead, the two twentieth-century monoliths--the scientific and the intelligence estates--are becoming simply outdated in their traditional form. The risk society is closing the divide, though in a direction not foreseen by the proponents of turning intelligence analysis into a science, or
the new production of scientific knowledge.

Guide to Vulnerability Analysis for Computer Networks and Systems

Автор: Simon Parkinson; Andrew Crampton; Richard Hill
Название: Guide to Vulnerability Analysis for Computer Networks and Systems
ISBN: 3030064743 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783030064747
Издательство: Springer
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Цена: 7685.00 р.
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Описание: This professional guide and reference examines the challenges of assessing security vulnerabilities in computing infrastructure. Various aspects of vulnerability assessment are covered in detail, including recent advancements in reducing the requirement for expert knowledge through novel applications of artificial intelligence. The work also offers a series of case studies on how to develop and perform vulnerability assessment techniques using start-of-the-art intelligent mechanisms.Topics and features: provides tutorial activities and thought-provoking questions in each chapter, together with numerous case studies; introduces the fundamentals of vulnerability assessment, and reviews the state of the art of research in this area; discusses vulnerability assessment frameworks, including frameworks for industrial control and cloud systems; examines a range of applications that make use of artificial intelligence to enhance the vulnerability assessment processes; presents visualisation techniques that can be used to assist the vulnerability assessment process.In addition to serving the needs of security practitioners and researchers, this accessible volume is also ideal for students and instructors seeking a primer on artificial intelligence for vulnerability assessment, or a supplementary text for courses on computer security, networking, and artificial intelligence.

Guide to Vulnerability Analysis for Computer Networks and Systems

Автор: Parkinson
Название: Guide to Vulnerability Analysis for Computer Networks and Systems
ISBN: 3319926233 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783319926230
Издательство: Springer
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Цена: 7685.00 р.
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Описание:

Part I: Introduction and State of the Art

Review of the State of the Art of Vulnerability Assessment Using Artificial Intelligence
Saad Khan and Simon Parkinson

A Survey of Machine Learning Algorithms and Their Application in Information Security
Mark Stamp

Part II: Vulnerability Assessment Frameworks

Vulnerability Assessment of Cybersecurity for SCADA Systems
Kyle Coffey, Leandros A. Maglaras, Richard Smith, Helge Janicke, Mohamed Amine Ferrag, Abdelouahid Derhab, Mithun Mukherjee, Stylianos Rallis, and Awais Yousaf

A Predictive Model for Risk and Trust Assessment in Cloud Computing: Taxonomy and Analysis for Attack Pattern Detection
Alexandros Chrysikos and Stephen McGuire

AI and Metrics-Based Vulnerability-Centric Cyber Security Assessment and Countermeasure Selection
Igor Kotenko, Elena Doynikova, Andrey Chechulin, and Andrey Fedorchenko

Artificial Intelligence Agents as Mediators of Trustless Security Systems and Distributed Computing Applications
Steven Walker-Roberts and Mohammad Hammoudeh

Part III: Applications of Artificial Intelligence

Automated Planning of Administrative Tasks Using Historic Events: a File System Case Study
Saad Khan and Simon Parkinson

Defending Against Chained Cyber-Attacks by Adversarial Agents
Vivin Paliath and Paulo Shakarian

Vulnerability Detection and Analysis in Adversarial Deep Learning
Yi Shi, Yalin E. Sagduyu, Kemal Davaslioglu, and Renato Levy

SOCIO-LENS: Spotting Unsolicited Callers Through Network Analysis
Muhammad Ajmal Azad, Junaid Arshad, and Farhan Riaz

Function Call Graphs Versus Machine Learning for Malware Detection
Deebiga Rajeswaran, Fabio Di Troia, Thomas H. Austin, and Mark Stamp

Detecting Encrypted and Polymorphic Malware Using Hidden Markov Models
Dhiviya Dhanasekar, Fabio Di Troia, Katerina Potika, and Mark Stamp

Masquerade Detection on Mobile Devices
Swathi Nambiar Kadala Manikoth, Fabio Di Troia, and Mark Stamp

Identifying File Interaction Patterns in Ransomware Behaviour
Liam Grant and Simon Parkinson

Part IV: Visualisation

A Framework for the Visualisation of Cyber Security Requirements and its Application in BPMN
Bo Zhou, Curtis Maines, Stephen Tang, and Qi Shi

Big Data and Cyber Security: A Visual Analytics Perspective
Suvodeep Mazumdar and Jing Wang

The U.S. Cybersecurity and Intelligence Analysis Challenges

Автор: Weaver John Michael
Название: The U.S. Cybersecurity and Intelligence Analysis Challenges
ISBN: 303095840X ISBN-13(EAN): 9783030958404
Издательство: Springer
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Цена: 6986.00 р.
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Описание: One of the prevailing issues regarding security to North America and more pointedly, the United States, gravitates on the topic of cyber threats confronting this nation. Moreover, this project uses secondary data and makes use of the Federal Secondary Data Case Study Triangulation Model to ensure a balance of sources to dissect the problem.

Intelligence and Security Oversight

Автор: Richardson
Название: Intelligence and Security Oversight
ISBN: 3319302515 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783319302515
Издательство: Springer
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Цена: 6986.00 р.
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Описание: Thisbook presents a comprehensive source document on intelligence and securityoversight and review. It compares the oversight arrangements found in ninecountries—New Zealand, Australia, Canada, United States, United Kingdom,Germany, Netherlands, Norway and South Africa. This is done through an analysisof a wide range of areas including statutory basis, agencies overseen,membership, tenure, appointment/dismissal, mandate, powers, access toclassified information, complaints function, reporting and, in the case ofparliamentary committees, the frequency of meetings. Within an annotatedbibliography section Richardson and Gilmour also provide detailed summaries ofother relevant research and commentary aligned with oversight and reviewpractices. Intelligence andSecurity Oversight: An Annotated Bibliography and Comparative Analysis comprehensivelydemonstrates the powers and limitations placed with, and on, oversight bodies,appealing to academics, researchers and practitioners in the intelligence andsecurity environment.

Improving Intelligence Analysis

Автор: Marrin, Stephen
Название: Improving Intelligence Analysis
ISBN: 0415780683 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780415780681
Издательство: Taylor&Francis
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Цена: 22968.00 р.
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The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Автор: Heuer Richard J.
Название: The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
ISBN: 1907521232 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781907521232
Издательство: Неизвестно
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Цена: 14473.00 р.
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Image of the enemy

Название: Image of the enemy
ISBN: 1626162387 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781626162389
Издательство: Неизвестно
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Цена: 24128.00 р.
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Описание: Drawing on sources only available since the Cold War ended, The Image of the Enemy breaks new ground as it examines how seven countries gathered, analyzed, and used intelligence to deepen their understanding of their adversaries.

Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis: Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method

Автор: Whitesmith Martha
Название: Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis: Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method
ISBN: 1474466346 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781474466349
Издательство: Bloomsbury Academic
Рейтинг:
Цена: 15048.00 р.
Наличие на складе: Нет в наличии.

Описание:

Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approach

  • Reveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biases
  • Demonstrates that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligence analysis
  • Explains the underlying causes cognitive biases, based on meta-analyses of existing research
  • Shows that identifying the ideal conditions for intelligence analysis is a more effective way of reducing the risk of cognitive bias than the use of ACH

Recent high-profile intelligence failures – from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war – prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK’s Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories.

Interrogation in War and Conflict

Автор: Andrew, Christopher
Название: Interrogation in War and Conflict
ISBN: 0415828031 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780415828031
Издательство: Taylor&Francis
Рейтинг:
Цена: 22968.00 р.
Наличие на складе: Поставка под заказ.


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