Manias, Panics, and Crashes, Aliber, Robert Z. Kindleberger, Charles P. McCauley, Robert N.
Старое издание
Автор: Frederick Betz Название: Why Bank Panics Matter ISBN: 331901756X ISBN-13(EAN): 9783319017563 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 6986.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Through this dynamic approach, the author identifies five key underlying triggers of bank panics: (1) funding excessive leverage in speculation, (2) lack of proper banking regulation, (3) bad banking practices, (4) lack of banking integrity, (5) corrupt banking practices.
Автор: Clayton Blake C. Название: Market Madness: A Century of Oil Panics, Crises, and Crashes ISBN: 0199990050 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780199990054 Издательство: Oxford Academ Рейтинг: Цена: 3800.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: In Market Madness: A Century of Oil Panics, Crises, and Crashes, Blake Clayton uses four historical case studies to document claims about the future of the U.S. oil supply and discuss their impact on the market and policymaking. He explores the conditions in which oil supply fears arise, gain popularity, and eventually wane, and shows how important such stories can be in affecting financial markets. He takes an innovative approach commonly used to assess therole of "irrational exuberance" in the technology and housing markets to determine how unfounded pessimism affects markets in oil and other exhaustible resources.
Автор: Garber, Peter M. Название: Famous First Bubbles ISBN: 0262571536 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780262571531 Издательство: MIT Press Рейтинг: Цена: 4224.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: This book offers market-fundamental explanations for the three most famous bubbles: the Dutch Tulipmania (1634-1637), the Mississippi Bubble (1719-1720), and the closely connected South Sea Bubble (1720).
Автор: Ziemba William T, Zhitlukhin Mikhail, Lleo Sebastien Название: Stock Market Crashes: Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them ISBN: 9813222603 ISBN-13(EAN): 9789813222601 Издательство: World Scientific Publishing Рейтинг: Цена: 15840.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: 'Overall, the book provides an interesting and useful synthesis of the authors (TM) research on the predictions of stock market crashes. The book can be recommended to anyone interested in the Bond Stock Earnings Yield Differential model, and similar methods to predict crashes.'Quantitative FinanceThis book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years.We present four models that have been successful in predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017. We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations.The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models.
Financial market bubbles are recurring, often painful, reminders of the costs and benefits of capitalism. While many books have studied financial manias and crises, most fail to compare times of turmoil with times of stability. In Bubbles and Crashes, Brent Goldfarb and David A. Kirsch give us new insights into the causes of speculative booms and busts. They identify a class of assets—major technological innovations—that can, but does not necessarily, produce bubbles. This methodological twist is essential: Only by comparing similar events that sometimes lead to booms and busts can we ascertain the root causes of bubbles.
Using a sample of eighty-eight technologies spanning 150 years, Goldfarb and Kirsch find that four factors play a key role in these episodes: the degree of uncertainty surrounding a particular innovation, the attentive presence of novice investors, the opportunity to directly invest in companies that specialize in the technology, and whether or not a technology is a good protagonist in a narrative. Goldfarb and Kirsch consider the implications of their analysis for technology bubbles that may be in the works today, offer tools for investors to identify whether a bubble is happening, and propose policy measures that may mitigate the risks associated with future speculative episodes.
Автор: Stefan Palan Название: Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets ISBN: 3642021468 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783642021466 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 10480.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Here is a highly topical account of a laboratory experiment designed to test the causes and properties of bubbles in financial markets. The book assesses whether it is possible to design markets which avoid such bubbles and their subsequent crashes.
Описание: How the Economy Works is a vital, elucidating look at macroeconomics--how it developed and why it matters today. By explaining, comparing, and finally combining classical and Keynesian economics, Roger Farmer shows how to design ways of correcting the excesses of free market economies that preserve the best features of capitalism, without stifling entrepreneurship.
Описание: This book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years.We present four models that have been successful in predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017. We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations.The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models.
Автор: Farmer Название: How the Economy Works nip ISBN: 0199360308 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780199360307 Издательство: Oxford Academ Рейтинг: Цена: 2058.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: By explaining, comparing, and finally combining classical and Keynesian economics, Roger Farmer shows how to design ways of correcting the excesses of free market economies that preserve the best features of capitalism without stifling entrepreneurship.
Описание: Hannah Catherine Davies offers a new lens on nineteenth-century globalization by exploring the ways in which the crises of 1873 challenged notions of economic and moral order. She maps the dual "transatlantic speculations": the financial speculation that led to these panics as well as the interpretative speculations that sprouted in their wake.
Автор: Elmus Wicker Название: Banking Panics of the Gilded Age ISBN: 0521025478 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780521025478 Издательство: Cambridge Academ Рейтинг: Цена: 3326.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: This was the first major study of post-Civil War banking panics in almost a century. The author re-evaluates the role of the New York Clearing House, concluding that structural defects of the National Banking Act were not the primary cause of the panics.
Автор: Abdel-khalik, A Rashad (univ Of Illinois At Urbana-champaign,usa) Название: Brazen: big banks, swap mania and the fallout ISBN: 9811203121 ISBN-13(EAN): 9789811203121 Издательство: World Scientific Publishing Рейтинг: Цена: 4752.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание:
For nearly two decades, countless non-profits in the U.S. were forced to pay big banks enormous sums of money to settle or terminate bilateral contracts known as Interest Rate Swaps (IRSs). Officials at non-profits had entered into these costly contracts unaware that each contract has only one winner, and that big banks did not intend to be the losers.
The effects of such monetary transfers have been catastrophic. Money-strapped non-profits had to dismiss schoolteachers, shut off water supply to thousands of poor households, and downsize many other essential public services. Local and state governments, public school districts, universities, hospitals and transit authorities from New York to Los Angeles have been among the largest hit.
This book presents selected cases and highlights the lack of evidence that decision makers at non-profits had fully understood the terms and complexities of IRSs. The evident unequal bargaining power thus gives rise to the high likelihood of unconscionable contracting. Additionally, for terminating these contracts, big banks collected huge sums of money for services that had not been, and will never be, rendered. Accordingly, questions arise as to whether these termination payments are tantamount to unjust enrichment.
ООО "Логосфера " Тел:+7(495) 980-12-10 www.logobook.ru
