Social Judgment and Decision Making, Krueger, Joachim I.
Автор: Tetlock Philip E. Название: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? ISBN: 0691175977 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780691175973 Издательство: Wiley Рейтинг: Цена: 3485.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание:
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion.
etlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat.
Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Автор: Gigerenzer Gerd Название: Simply Rational: Decision Making in the Real World ISBN: 019939007X ISBN-13(EAN): 9780199390076 Издательство: Oxford Academ Рейтинг: Цена: 14573.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: This volume of collected papers brings together applied and theoretical research on risks and decision making in the fields of medicine, psychology, and economics.
Автор: Theo Offerman Название: Beliefs and Decision Rules in Public Good Games ISBN: 0792399919 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780792399919 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 23757.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Part I provides an introduction to this study of players` beliefs and decision rules in to obtain data in order to public good games. Chapter 2 provides an overview of psychological and economic ideas concerning players` beliefs and decision rules in public good games.
Автор: Norman Schofield Название: Collective Decision-Making: ISBN: 0792397118 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780792397113 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 30606.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Provides a perspective on collective decision-making, presenting economic and political aspects from both a theoretical and empirical viewpoint. This book examines decision-making in multiparty politics. It also covers interest groups, electoral cycles and a formal discussion of the `general will`.
Автор: Fuad T. Aleskerov Название: Arrovian Aggregation Models ISBN: 0792384512 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780792384519 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 23757.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Investigates three formulations of the aggregation problem according to the form in which the individual opinions about the alternatives are defined, as well as to the form of desired social decision. This book offers a description of the problem of axiomatic synthesis of local rules.
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Описание: Supercharge your critical thinking skills and learn to solve problems like a pro.
Are you searching for scientifically-proven ways to boost your problem-solving abilities? Do you want to learn how to think like the greatest minds in history? Or are you looking for a comprehensive breakdown of the human mind so you can better understand what makes you tick? Then this book is for you
Mental models are an incredible psychological concept which let you train your mind to think in a certain way. Behind dozens of entrepreneurs, great thinkers, and successful people there are countless mental models which give them a powerful framework for solving problems, improving their self-discipline, and boosting their productivity. So how can you benefit from mental models and learn to incorporate them into your own life? And how can you build a foundation for clear thinking that works for you?
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Here's just a little of what you'll find inside:
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- Practical Ways To Apply Mental Models For Problem Solving, Critical Thinking, Productivity and More
- How To Build Your Own Mental Model and Develop a Cutting-Edge System That Works
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Автор: Forsyth Donelson Название: Making Moral Judgments ISBN: 0367370832 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780367370831 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 7042.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: This book examines diversity in moral judgements, drawing on recent work in social, personality, and evolutionary psychology. The author explores morality using ethics position theory alongside other theoretical perspectives in moral psychology, showing how it can relate to contemporary social issues from abortion to premarital sex to human rights.
Автор: Weber Elke U., Baron Jonathan, Loomes Graham Название: Conflict and Tradeoffs in Decision Making ISBN: 0521772389 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780521772389 Издательство: Cambridge Academ Цена: 17424.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: What makes some decisions easy and others difficult? Research in judgment and decision making indicates that conflict plays a decisive role in decision-making processes. The essays in this book address questions about the causes of conflict and its effects on decision making and emotions, particularly regret.
Автор: N.J. Saam; B. Schmidt Название: Cooperative Agents ISBN: 9048159024 ISBN-13(EAN): 9789048159024 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 19564.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Agent-based modelling on a computer appears to have a special role to play in the development of social science. What are the sociological concepts of norms and norm processing that could either be used for planned implementation or for identifying equivalents of social norms among co-operative agents?
Автор: Kirchler Название: Conflict and Decision Making in Close Relationships ISBN: 113887728X ISBN-13(EAN): 9781138877283 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 8726.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Love and money are important aspects of the everyday lives of couples. This book focuses on the daily routines of disagreement, conflict and joint decisions that these, and other issues such as work, leisure and children, create in a household.
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