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The Black Swan, Taleb, Nassim Nicholas

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Автор: Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
Название:  The Black Swan   (Черный лебедь)
Издательство: Random House (USA)
Классификация:
ISBN: 1400063515
ISBN-13(EAN): 9781400063512
ISBN: 1-400-06351-5
ISBN-13(EAN): 978-1-400-06351-2
Обложка/Формат: Hardcover
Страницы: 366
Вес: 0.616 кг.
Серия: Business
Язык: ENG
Размер: 23.95 x 16.21 x 3.28 cm
Поставляется из: США
Описание: A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we dont know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the impossible.
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we dont know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan.
Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The most prophetic voice of all.--GQ

Praise for The Black Swan
A book] that altered modern thinking.--The Times (London)
A masterpiece.--Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail

Idiosyncratically brilliant.--Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times

The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.--Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate
Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias and] narrative fallacy.--The Wall Street Journal

Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into.--Financial Times

Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.--The New York Times Book Review


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The Black Swan

Автор: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Название: The Black Swan
ISBN: 0141034599 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780141034591
Издательство: Penguin Books Ltd
Рейтинг:
Цена: 747 р.
Наличие на складе: Есть (5 шт.)
Описание: What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? And, what can Catherine the Great`s lovers tell us about probability? This book shows us how to stop trying to predict everything and take advantage of uncertainty.

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Antifragile

Автор: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Название: Antifragile
ISBN: 0141038225 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780141038223
Издательство: Penguin Books Ltd
Рейтинг:
Цена: 822 р.
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.

Описание: Tough times don`t last. Tough people do. In this book, the author shows that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world.

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Antifragile

Автор: Taleb Nassim Nicholas
Название: Antifragile
ISBN: 1846141567 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781846141560
Издательство: Penguin Books Ltd
Цена: 1870 р.
Наличие на складе: Нет в наличии.

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Antifragility

Автор: Taleb, Nassim Nichol
Название: Antifragility
ISBN: 1846141575 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781846141577
Издательство: Penguin Books Ltd
Цена: 1271 р.
Наличие на складе: Нет в наличии.

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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

Автор: Taleb Nassim Nicholas
Название: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
ISBN: 1400067936 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781400067930
Издательство: Random House (USA)
Цена: 1612 р.
Наличие на складе: Невозможна поставка.

Описание: Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes.
Now in a striking new hardcover edition, Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb-veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan-has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.
This book is about luck-or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill-the world of trading-Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.
The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world's wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.
However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed-the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time-he embodies the "survival of the least fit." Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru's insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.
Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.
PRAISE FOR FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS
Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time
A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year

" Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther's ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church."
-Malcolm Gladwell, author of Blink
"The book that rolled down Wall Street like a hand grenade."
-Maggie Mahar, author of Bull A History of the Boom, 1982--1999
"Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you."
-Peter L. Bernstein, author of Capital Ideas Evolving
"Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould."
-Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play: How the World's Best Companies Simulate to Innovate
"We need a book like this. . . . Fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded."
-Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance
"Powerful . . . loaded with crackling little insights and] extreme brilliance."
-National Review

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Incerto Box Set

Автор: Taleb, Nicholas Nassim
Название: Incerto Box Set
ISBN: 0141985208 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780141985206
Издательство: Penguin Books Ltd
Рейтинг:
Цена: 2992 р.
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.

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The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms

Автор: Taleb Nassim Nicholas
Название: The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms
ISBN: 0812982401 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780812982404
Издательство: Random House (USA)
Цена: 974 р.
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.

Описание: With fifty percent more material than the hardcover, this expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, and Antifragile.

By the author of the modern classic The Black Swan, this collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses his major ideas in ways you least expect.

The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. It represents Taleb's view of modern civilization's hubristic side effects--modifying humans to satisfy technology, blaming reality for not fitting economic models, inventing diseases to sell drugs, defining intelligence as what can be tested in a classroom, and convincing people that employment is not slavery.

Playful and irreverent, these aphorisms will surprise you by exposing self-delusions you have been living with but never recognized.

With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical values of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.

"Taleb's crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems."--Financial Times

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Fooled by Randomness

Автор: Taleb, Nassim Nicholas Pratt, Sean
Название: Fooled by Randomness
ISBN: 159659201X ISBN-13(EAN): 9781596592018
Издательство: Hachette Book Group
Цена: 2630 р.
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.

Описание: This audiobook is about luck, or more precisely, how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes.

Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill, the world of trading, this audiobook is a captivating insight into one of the least understood factors of all our lives. In an entertaining narrative style, the author succeeds in tackling three major intellectual issues: the problem of induction, the survivorship biases, and our genetic unfitness to the modern word. Taleb uses stories and anecdotes to illustrate our overestimation of causality and the heuristics that make us view the world as far more explainable than it actually is.

The audiobook is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: Yogi Berra, the baseball legend; Karl Popper, the philosopher of knowledge; Solon, the ancient world's wisest man; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Ulysses. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life, but who also falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.

But the most recognizable character remains unnamed, the lucky fool in the right place at the right time - the embodiment of the "Survival of the Least Fit." Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru's insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained through chance.

It may be impossible to guard against the vagaries of the Goddess Fortuna, but after listening to Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.

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The Bed of Procrustes

Автор: Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
Название: The Bed of Procrustes
ISBN: 1846144582 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781846144585
Издательство: Penguin Books Ltd
Рейтинг:
Цена: 1121 р.
Наличие на складе: Нет в наличии.

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Skin in the Game

Автор: Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
Название: Skin in the Game
ISBN: 0241300657 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780241300657
Издательство: Penguin Books Ltd
Рейтинг:
Цена: 1121 р.
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.

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The Bed of Procrustes (R/I)

Автор: Taleb, Nicholas Nassim
Название: The Bed of Procrustes (R/I)
ISBN: 014198502X ISBN-13(EAN): 9780141985022
Издательство: Penguin Books Ltd
Рейтинг:
Цена: 747 р.
Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.

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NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB SHRINKWRAP PACK

Название: NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB SHRINKWRAP PACK
ISBN: 0141191325 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780141191324
Издательство: Penguin Books Ltd
Цена: 1346 р.
Наличие на складе: Нет в наличии.

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