Автор: Tetlock Philip E. Название: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? ISBN: 0691175977 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780691175973 Издательство: Wiley Рейтинг: Цена: 3485.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание:
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion.
etlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat.
Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Автор: Sanders Название: Making Good Communities Better ISBN: 0813154286 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780813154282 Издательство: Mare Nostrum (Eurospan) Рейтинг: Цена: 5643.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: An impressive array of additional experts has teamed up with him to supply selected guideposts on twenty-one special problems in community organization. This popular handbook has been called by many civic workers the most practical, down-to-earth tool they have known for community engineering.
Описание: Democracy, Economics, and the Public Good provides a critical examination of essential aspects of American life, reviewing democratic and economic theories and practices and providing examination of ideas of the public good. Similar critical processes are
Название: Multiple Modernities and Good Governance ISBN: 113857452X ISBN-13(EAN): 9781138574526 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 22202.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: This book represents the first discussion from a political science perspective of the concept of Multiple Modernities in three dimensions and addessing four concepts - Good Society, Good Governance, Human Security and Varieties of Capitalism
Автор: Wright Matthew D. Название: A Vindication of Politics: On the Common Good and Human Flourishing ISBN: 0700627553 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780700627554 Издательство: Mare Nostrum (Eurospan) Рейтинг: Цена: 6896.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Is politics strictly a means to an end—something that serves only the interests of individuals and the various associations of civil society such as families and charities? Or is a society's political common good an end in itself, an essential component of full human flourishing? Responding to recent influential arguments for the instrumentality of the political common good, Matthew D. Wright's A Vindication of Politics addresses a lacuna in natural law political theory by foregrounding the significance of political culture. Rather than an activity defined by law and government, politics emerges in this account as a cultural enterprise that connects generations and ennobles our common life.The instrumentalist argument, in Wright's view, does not give a plausible account of, among other things, the value of patriotism—of the way Americans revere the Founders, for instance, or love the Declaration of Independence, or idolize Abraham Lincoln. Such political affections cannot be explained by an instrumental common good. Loyalty to one's country is not like a commitment to a telephone company. As nasty as politics can be, we hope for more from it than the quid pro quo of a business transaction. To arrive at an adequate theoretical account of why that is, Wright brings historical theory from Aristotle to Burke into conversation with contemporary theorists from John Finnis to Amy Gutmann. In A Vindication of Politics he develops a case for the intrinsic value of politics in a way that underwrites a healthy patriotism—and strongly suggests that the political common good is a critical part of what it means to be fully human.The book offers new insight into the nature of the political common good and human sociability as well as their importance for making sense of the fundamental questions of American constitutional identity, principles, and aspirations.
Автор: Jouvenel, Bertrand De Название: Sovereignty ISBN: 0865971730 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780865971738 Издательство: Gazelle Book Services Рейтинг: Цена: 2349.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: An examination of the nature and history of authority, the political good, the sovereign and liberty. The foreword places the author`s work in the context of his entire corpus.
Название: Sdg3 - good health and wellbeing ISBN: 1789737125 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781789737127 Издательство: Emerald Рейтинг: Цена: 9349.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: SDG3 - Good Health and Wellbeing: Re-Calibrating the SDG Agenda will explore topics surrounding the contemporary discussions concerning the implementation of the goal. It will cover concepts and concerns, and include practical case studies of how SDG3 has been implemented in different regions of the world.
Автор: Wuthnow Robert Название: Why Religion Is Good for American Democracy ISBN: 0691222630 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780691222639 Издательство: Wiley Рейтинг: Цена: 4435.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание:
How the actions and advocacy of diverse religious communities in the United States have supported democracy's development during the past century
Does religion benefit democracy? Robert Wuthnow says yes. In Why Religion Is Good for American Democracy, Wuthnow makes his case by moving beyond the focus on unifying values or narratives about culture wars and elections. Rather, he demonstrates that the beneficial contributions of religion are best understood through the lens of religious diversity. The religious composition of the United States comprises many groups, organizations, and individuals that vigorously, and sometimes aggressively, contend for what they believe to be good and true. Unwelcome as this contention can be, it is rarely extremist, violent, or autocratic. Instead, it brings alternative and innovative perspectives to the table, forcing debates about what it means to be a democracy. Wuthnow shows how American religious diversity works by closely investigating religious advocacy spanning the past century: during the Great Depression, World War II, the civil rights movement, the debates about welfare reform, the recent struggles for immigrant rights and economic equality, and responses to the coronavirus pandemic. The engagement of religious groups in advocacy and counteradvocacy has sharpened arguments about authoritarianism, liberty of conscience, freedom of assembly, human dignity, citizens' rights, equality, and public health. Wuthnow hones in on key principles of democratic governance and provides a hopeful yet realistic appraisal of what religion can and cannot achieve. At a time when many observers believe American democracy to be in dire need of revitalization, Why Religion Is Good for American Democracy illustrates how religious groups have contributed to this end and how they might continue to do so despite the many challenges faced by the nation.
Описание: Award-winning journalist Thomas Kapsidelis examines the decade after the Virginia Tech massacre through the experiences of survivors and community members who advocated for reforms in gun safety, campus security, trauma recovery, and mental health.
Автор: Shobert, Benjamin Название: Blaming china ISBN: 1612349951 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781612349954 Издательство: Mare Nostrum (Eurospan) Рейтинг: Цена: 5010.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: American society is angrier, more fragmented, and more polarized than at any time since the Civil War. We harbor deep insecurities about our economic future, our place in the world, our response to terrorism, and our deeply dysfunctional government. Over the next several years, Benjamin Shobert says, these four insecurities will be perverted and projected onto China in an attempt to shift blame for errors entirely of our own making. These misdirections will be satisfying in the short term but will eventually destabilize the global world that businesses, consumers, and governments have taken for granted for the last forty years and will usher in an age of geopolitical uncertainty characterized by regional conflict and increasing economic dislocation. Shobert, a senior associate at the National Bureau of Asian Research, explores how America’s attitudes toward China have changed and how our economic anxieties and political dysfunction have laid the foundation for turning our collective frustrations away from acknowledging the consequences of our own poor decisions. Shobert argues that unless we address these problems, a disastrous chapter in American life is right around the corner, one in which Americans will decide that conflict with China is the only sensible option. After framing how the American public thinks about China, Shobert offers two alternative paths forward. He proposes steps that businesses, governments, and individuals can take to potentially stop and reverse America’s path to a dystopian future.
Автор: Armstrong Название: The Legacy of the Good Friday Agreement ISBN: 3319912313 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783319912318 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 18167.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Thus, the authors of this book look at a number of issues that continue to stymie the development of a robust and sustainable peacebuilding project, including segregation, contested parades and flags, ethnic party mobilization, and memorialization.
Описание: World Politics and the American Quest for Super-Villains, Demons, and Bad Guys to Destroy introduces students to basic concepts in world politics to expand their cultural awareness. It addresses common misperceptions and their impact on foreign policy, explores forms of bureaucratic dysfunction in key American agencies, and encourages students to re-conceptualize their perceptions of global villains and bad guys.Readers learn about the building blocks of world politics, transitions from authoritarianism to democracy, the Middle East conflict and its widespread impact, and the long-lasting consequences of war and occupation in Iraq. The text arms readers with the conceptual tools they need to decide for themselves what they believe about vital and perplexing cultural, social, and global issues. Students can leverage these concepts to examine and analyze U.S. foreign and military policy, as well as a variety of global security crises.Highly readable and accessible, World Politics and the American Quest for Super-Villains, Demons, and Bad Guys to Destroy is ideal for introductory courses in global politics.
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