Advanced models and tools for effective decision making under uncertainty and risk contexts,
Автор: Rebecca Dalli Gonzi Название: Change and Continuity Management in the Public Sector: The DALI Model for Effective Decision Making ISBN: 1789731682 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781789731682 Издательство: Emerald Рейтинг: Цена: 9675.00 р. 13821.00-30% Наличие на складе: Есть (1 шт.) Описание: In evolving crises, managing teams often have little information and fewer resources. This book proposes a model for more effective decision making early in the evolution of a crisis, before disaster response plans are activated.
Автор: Vincent A. W. J. Marchau; Warren E. Walker; Pieter Название: Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty ISBN: 3030052516 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783030052515 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 6986.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them.
Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work.
The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Описание: This book introduces general techniques for thinking systematically and quantitatively about uncertainty in engineering decision problems. It shows how conditional expectations and conditional cumulative distributions can be estimated in a simulation model.
Автор: Karni, Edi Название: Decision making under uncertainty ISBN: 0674493990 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780674493995 Издательство: Wiley Рейтинг: Цена: 8704.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание:
"But Mama, but Mama, what if I were a super smelly skunk, and I smelled so bad that my name was Stinky Face?"Mothers love their children and this unconditional love is truly tested in I LOVE YOU, STINKY FACE. Lisa McCourt and Cyd Moore beautifully weave a reassuring tale of the love and affection of a parent. The imaginative son turns himself into a meat-eating dinosaur, a swamp creature and much, much more before being satisfied with the fact that no matter how stinky he is or how slimy of a creature he could possibly be, he is loved and nothing will change that.
Автор: Popper Steven W., Walker Warren E., Bloemen Pieter J. T. M. Название: Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty ISBN: 1013275594 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781013275593 Издательство: Неизвестно Рейтинг: Цена: 12130.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Автор: Eoyang Glenda, Holladay Royce Название: Adaptive Action: Leveraging Uncertainty in Your Organization ISBN: 0804787115 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780804787116 Издательство: Wiley EDC Рейтинг: Цена: 4803.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание:
Rooted in the study of chaos and complexity, Adaptive Action introduces a simple, common sense process that will guide you and your organization into reflective action.
This elegant method prompts readers to engage with three deceptively simple questions: What? So what? Now what? The first leads to careful observation. The second invites you to thoughtfully consider options and implications. The third ignites effective action. Together, these questions and the tools that support them produce a dynamic and creative dance with uncertainty. The road-tested steps of adaptive action can be used to devise solutions and improve performance across multiple challenges, and they have proven to be scalable from individuals to work groups, from organizations to communities.
In addition to laying out the adaptive action framework and clear protocols to support it, Glenda H. Eoyang and Royce J. Holladay introduce best practices from exemplary professionals who have used adaptive action to meet personal, professional, and political challenges in leadership, consulting, Alzheimer's treatment, evaluation, education reform, political advocacy, and cultural engagement—readying readers to employ this new toolkit to meet their own goals with a sense of ingenuity and flexibility.
Автор: Ed: Kristian Sund Название: Uncertainty and Strategic Decision Making ISBN: 1786351706 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781786351708 Издательство: Emerald Рейтинг: Цена: 19919.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: In this book, leading researchers on Managerial and Organizational Cognition consider the foundations of individual and social cognition and their effect on strategic decision-making.
Stay alert and avoid being tricked. Apply logic and analysis to your everyday life. Detect hidden assumptions, spot inconsistencies, and recognize dishonesty.
The quality of our lives is determined by the quality of our thinking.
And the quality of our thinking is often determined by the quality questions we ask from ourselves.Critical thinking is the art of asking relevant, necessary, and meaningful questions to discover the objective truth behind words, events, and opinions in general.
Today we have more access to information than ever before. Information influences our world view and decisions often without us noticing it. Following wrong idols can lead us to bad decisions which lead to unhappiness and a dissatisfying life. When what's "right, beautiful, successful, and cool" gets dictated around us we often forget to think for ourselves and make our own choices. Thus we make bad decisions based on the opinion of others - not even our own.
Who should make your life choices for you? You've put your own thoughts, wishes, and opinions off for too long. It's time for that to change.
Models for Critical Thinking provides you with unique insights into the nature of thinking and reasoning - why are we often so wrong, why we are so inclined to avoid the responsibility of thinking for ourselves, and how can we develop solid, objective patterns of thought.
This book is a guide for the notoriously "trusting," "overwhelmed," and "gullible". It is a deep psychological dive into what makes us stop thinking for ourselves, and how to systematically combat those compulsions. It's a book that stands apart from others because of the plethora of real-life examples, studies, and solutions. If you wish to add to your critical thinking toolkit, you'll find the step-by-step answer in here.
Models for Critical Thinking lays out:
- The function of critical thinking and its main obstacles. - The varied elements of critical reasoning. - Important abilities and traits of critical thinkers. - The vocabulary of critical analysis, - The models essential to critical thinking.
The most secure way of making good decisions is to have well-practiced and predictable strategies that you can use when you are faced with a problem that requires deeper analysis.
This book will provide you with helpful exercises and tips to help you can find better solutions to your problems. - Learn the essential critical thinking skills when reading, writing, and speaking; - Be on your guard for hidden cognitive traps when shopping and interacting with advertisers. - Discover the tools and strategies can help you become a more disciplined thinker, developing your analytical, reasoning, and reflective thinking skills.
Be ready to learn. Be ready to argue intellectually.
- Learn to read between the lines and assess the validity of statements. - Identify and separate logical and illogical reasoning. - Learn how to construct a fair, well-reasoned argument with the help of formal and informal logic.
As a physicist and computer scientist, I was always looking for logical, well-founded answers to questions. Yet, I needed to stay open to question my knowledge fairly often, revise my beliefs held, and unlearn some.
Автор: Surafel Luleseged Tilahun, Jean Medard T. Ngnotchouye Название: Optimization Techniques for Problem Solving in Uncertainty ISBN: 1522550917 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781522550914 Издательство: Mare Nostrum (Eurospan) Рейтинг: Цена: 28413.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: When it comes to optimization techniques, in some cases, the available information from real models may not be enough to construct either a probability distribution or a membership function for problem solving. In such cases, there are various theories that can be used to quantify the uncertain aspects.Optimization Techniques for Problem Solving in Uncertainty is a scholarly reference resource that looks at uncertain aspects involved in different disciplines and applications. Featuring coverage on a wide range of topics including uncertain preference, fuzzy multilevel programming, and metaheuristic applications, this book is geared towards engineers, managers, researchers, and post-graduate students seeking emerging research in the field of optimization.
Описание: Presents research exploring the theoretical and practical aspects of effective decision making based not only on mathematical techniques, but also on those technological tools that are available nowadays in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Описание: Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty offers a new narrative of the three-century history of the study of decision making, tracing how crucial ideas have evolved and telling the stories of the thinkers who shaped the field. George G. Szpiro examines economics from theories of optimal decision making to behavioral science.
Автор: J. Geweke Название: Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty ISBN: 0792319044 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780792319047 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 32004.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: A collection of work representative of the theory of decision making under risk and uncertainty. The authors present extensions and alternatives to expected utility theory explaining diverse behaviour, including activity in financial markets, crimes of passion and the Ellsberg paradox.
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