Описание: This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).
Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approach
Reveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biases
Demonstrates that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligence analysis
Explains the underlying causes cognitive biases, based on meta-analyses of existing research
Shows that identifying the ideal conditions for intelligence analysis is a more effective way of reducing the risk of cognitive bias than the use of ACH
Recent high-profile intelligence failures – from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war – prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK’s Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories.
Название: Competing Memories of European Border Towns ISBN: 103267492X ISBN-13(EAN): 9781032674926 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 22202.00 р. Наличие на складе: Нет в наличии.
Автор: Lipton Название: Liberals, Marxists, and Nationalists ISBN: 023060059X ISBN-13(EAN): 9780230600591 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 11179.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: This book examines conflicting interpretations of the origins, evolution, and end of apartheid. Lipton asserts that it began around 1970 with relatively non-violent reform, and ended following President de Klerk`s release of Nelson Mandela, and his reinstatement of the African National Congress and other organizations, in February 1990.
Автор: Omelicheva Название: Democracy In Central Asia ISBN: 0813160685 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780813160689 Издательство: Turpin Рейтинг: Цена: 6838.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание:
Promoting democracy has long been a priority of Western foreign policy. In practice, however, international attempts to expand representative forms of government have been inconsistent and are often perceived in the West to have been failures. The states of Central Asia, in particular, seem to be "democracy resistant," and their governments have continued to support various forms of authoritarianism in the decades following the Soviet Union's collapse.
In Democracy in Central Asia, Mariya Omelicheva examines the beliefs and values underlying foreign policies of the major global powers -- the United States, the European Union, Russia, and China -- in order to understand their efforts to influence political change in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. Omelicheva has traveled extensively in the region, collecting data from focus groups and public opinion surveys. She draws on the results of her fieldwork as well as on official documents and statements of democracy-promoting nations in order to present a provocative new analysis. Her study reveals that the governments and citizens of Central Asia have developed their own views on democracy supported by the Russian and Chinese models rather than by Western examples.
The vast majority of previous scholarly work on this subject has focused on the strategies of democratization pursued by one agent such as the United States or the European Union. Omelicheva shifts the focus from democracy promoters' methods to their message and expands the scope of existing analysis to include multiple sources of influence. Her fresh approach illuminates the full complexity of both global and regional notions of good governance and confirms the importance of social-psychological and language-based perspectives in understanding the obstacles to expanding egalitarianism.
Описание: Opposing a binary perspective that consolidates ethnicity, religion, and nationalism into separate spheres, this book demonstrates that neither nationalism nor religion can be studied in isolation in the Middle East.
Название: Protecting the Rights of Women Migrant Domestic Workers ISBN: 1032015608 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781032015606 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 6430.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Автор: De Angeli, Aglaia Название: Competing Imperialisms in Northeast Asia ISBN: 0367648237 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780367648237 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 22202.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Leading experts and political leaders from Europe and North America explore the political, economic, and foreign policy possibilities of a more politically progressive Ukraine in the heart of Europe. They investigate the obstacles that have turned Ukraine into an immobile state and offer specific recommendations that would open Ukraine by breaking its reform logjam.
Автор: Haas Michael Название: International Relations Theory: Competing Empirical Paradigms ISBN: 1498544991 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781498544993 Издательство: Bloomsbury Рейтинг: Цена: 14108.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: This book argues against the traditional understanding of international relations through the study of ideology and introduces four new major paradigms in the study of international relations theory: Marxian, mass society, community building, and rational choice.
Автор: Sullivan Название: Competing Visions of India in World Politics ISBN: 1137398655 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781137398659 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 11179.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: This edited collection presents an alternative set of reflections on India`s contemporary global role by exploring a range of influential non-Western state perspectives. Through multiple case studies, the contributors gauge the success of India`s efforts to be seen as an alternative global power in the twenty-first century.
Автор: Licklider Roy Название: New Armies from Old ISBN: 1626161011 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781626161016 Издательство: Неизвестно Рейтинг: Цена: 41371.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Negotiating a peaceful end to civil wars often includes an attempt to bring together former rival military or insurgent factions into a new national army. This book intends to fill the serious gap in our understanding of civil wars, their possible resolution, and how to promote lasting peace.
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