Social Comprehension and Judgment, Wyer Jr., Robert S.
Автор: Tetlock Philip E. Название: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? ISBN: 0691175977 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780691175973 Издательство: Wiley Рейтинг: Цена: 3485.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание:
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion.
etlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat.
Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Автор: Wyer Jr., Robert S. Название: Social Comprehension and Judgment ISBN: 0415651743 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780415651745 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 8573.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Автор: Colston, Herbert L. Название: Figurative Language Comprehension ISBN: 0415654831 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780415654838 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 8573.00 р. Наличие на складе: Поставка под заказ.
Автор: Krueger, Joachim I. Название: Social Judgment and Decision Making ISBN: 1848729065 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781848729063 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 22202.00 р. Наличие на складе: Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Cognitive Illusions explores a wide range of fascinating psychological effects in the way we think, judge and remember in our everyday lives.
Автор: Letzring Tera D., Spain Jana S. Название: The Oxford Handbook of Accurate Personality Judgment ISBN: 0190912529 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780190912529 Издательство: Oxford Academ Рейтинг: Цена: 36037.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Learning about the process of accurate personality judgments can be used to help people understand when and how they are more likely to make accurate judgments. This handbook offers a thorough, evidence-based, and up-to-date review of this research field.
Автор: Oppenheimer, Daniel M. Название: The Science of Giving ISBN: 1848728859 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781848728851 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 22202.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Автор: Shapira Название: Organizational Decision Making ISBN: 0521890500 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780521890502 Издательство: Cambridge Academ Рейтинг: Цена: 8237.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: This book offers a more realistic account of decision making in organizations by highlighting several aspects such as the salience of incentives, the pervasiveness of conflict, and the role that power and politics play in organizational decision making.
Автор: De Cremer, David Название: Social Psychology and Economics ISBN: 0805857559 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780805857559 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 13779.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Автор: Rosenthal Название: Judgment Studies ISBN: 0521101476 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780521101479 Издательство: Cambridge Academ Рейтинг: Цена: 5069.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Because of the complexity of human behaviour a large number of research variables must be constructed from building blocks of human judgement. This book describes the design, analysis and the meta-analysis of studies employing judgements in sufficient detail to enable readers to conduct such studies, and more wisely evaluate them.
Автор: De Cremer, David Название: Social Psychology and Economics ISBN: 0805857540 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780805857542 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 22968.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Cognitive Illusions explores a wide range of fascinating psychological effects in the way we think, judge and remember in our everyday lives.
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